Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Dem Prospects Getting Better
There has'nt been a lot of good weeks on the Senate election front for Democrats so far in 2010, but they have received good news on their chances of picking up five different Republican held Senate seats this week:
-In Arizona there have been two polls now showing John McCain under 50% against Rodney Glassman. J.D. Hayworth continues to be competitive among Republican primary voters against McCain, and it appears a Hayworth-Glassman contest would be a total tossup.
-In Iowa Research 2000 showed Charles Grassley only up single digits against Roxanne Conlin, and although Rasmussen has Grassley up by 13 that's a far cry from January when they showed him leading her by 28 points.
-In Kentucky PPP found both Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo within the margin of error against Rand Paul, who all independent public polling continues to show with a double digit lead.
-In North Carolina, Rasmussen showed Elaine Marshall improving her standing against Richard Burr by ten points in just two and a half weeks and Cal Cunningham with a nine point movement in his. If we find anywhere near that much momentum for Marshall and Cunningham on our North Carolina poll this weekend then we'll find each of them almost tied with Burr for the first time.
-In Ohio Quinnipiac and Rasmussen now both show Lee Fisher ahead of Rob Portman, and in the case of Rasmussen that's a six point improvement for Fisher over the last month. Even if his primary victory wasn't exactly overwhelming, his standing's improved.
One thing I really don't know for sure yet is whether 2010 will be solely an anti-Democratic year, or more broadly an anti-incumbent year where there are some surprising Republican losses in addition to the expected Democratic ones. Although the GOP still has to be seen as favored in all of these races, the movement in a Democratic direction in each of them is an encouraging sign for the party.
-In Arizona there have been two polls now showing John McCain under 50% against Rodney Glassman. J.D. Hayworth continues to be competitive among Republican primary voters against McCain, and it appears a Hayworth-Glassman contest would be a total tossup.
-In Iowa Research 2000 showed Charles Grassley only up single digits against Roxanne Conlin, and although Rasmussen has Grassley up by 13 that's a far cry from January when they showed him leading her by 28 points.
-In Kentucky PPP found both Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo within the margin of error against Rand Paul, who all independent public polling continues to show with a double digit lead.
-In North Carolina, Rasmussen showed Elaine Marshall improving her standing against Richard Burr by ten points in just two and a half weeks and Cal Cunningham with a nine point movement in his. If we find anywhere near that much momentum for Marshall and Cunningham on our North Carolina poll this weekend then we'll find each of them almost tied with Burr for the first time.
-In Ohio Quinnipiac and Rasmussen now both show Lee Fisher ahead of Rob Portman, and in the case of Rasmussen that's a six point improvement for Fisher over the last month. Even if his primary victory wasn't exactly overwhelming, his standing's improved.
One thing I really don't know for sure yet is whether 2010 will be solely an anti-Democratic year, or more broadly an anti-incumbent year where there are some surprising Republican losses in addition to the expected Democratic ones. Although the GOP still has to be seen as favored in all of these races, the movement in a Democratic direction in each of them is an encouraging sign for the party.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Fireworks in the PA DEM primary for the Senate seat
Joe Sestak really pulled out the big guns with this ad, I'm torn between supporting the real democrat or going with the elect-ability argument.
MY 2010 SENATE PICKS
It's 6 months left till the mid-term elections and the campaign season is in full swing. I'll be reviewing some of the most important Senate and Governors races individually in the next few weeks, for now though, here's a list of my picks for all the Senate races this year. Please feel free to visit their websites to familiarize yourselves with them and donate if you're supportive of their cause;
- Roxanne Conlin for the IA senate seat www.roxanneforiowa.com
- Brad Ellsworth for the IN senate seat www.ellsworthforindiana2010.com
- Alexi Giannoulias for the IL senate seat www.alexiforillinois.com
- Daniel Inouye for the HI senate seat www.inouye.senate.gov
- Chris Coons for the DE senate seat www.chriscoons.com
- Richard Shelby for the AL senate seat www.shelby.senate.gov
- Rodney Glassman for the AZ senate seat www.rodneyglassman.con
- Harry Reid for the NV senate seat www.reid.senate.gov
- Lisa Murkowski for the AK senate seat www.murkowski.senate.gov
- Ron Wyden for the OR senate race www.wyden.senate.gov
- Patty Murray for the WA senate seat www.murray.senate.gov
- Elaine Marshall for the NC senate seat www.elainemarshall.com
- Barbara Boxer for the CA senate seat www.boxer.senate.gov
- Richard Blumenthal for the CT senate seat www.richardblumenthal.com
- Bill Halter for the AR senate seat www.billhalter.com
- Charlie Crist for the FL Senate seat www.charliecrist.com
- Michael Bennet for the CO senate seat www.bennet.senate.gov
- Sam Granato for the UT senate seat www.voteforgranato.com
- Tracy Potter for ND senate seat www.tracypotterforsenate.com
- John Thune for the SD senate seat www.thune.senate.gov
- Tom Coburn for the OK senate seat www.coburn.senate.gov
- Robin Carnahan for the MO senate seat www.robincarnahan.com
- Charlie Melancon for the LA senate seat www.charliemelancon.com
- Russ Feingold for the WI senate seat www.feingold.senate.gov
- Jack Conway for the KY senate seat www.jackconway.org
- Lee Fisher for the OH senate seat www.fisherforohio.com
- Arlen Specter for the PA senate seat www.specter.senate.gov
- Barbara Mikulski for the MD senate seat www.mikulski.senate.gov
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WEEK
Book - The Bridge (David Remnick)
Movie - Iron Man 2
Music - The Swelly Express (Chiddy Bang)
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